I posted Goldman Sachs here:
DB, on the other hand, have stuck with their +25bp rate hike forecast.
- Less than two weeks ago on March 8, markets were edging towards a near 6% terminal rate and a low point in rates of around 4.1% in 2025.
- However, just a week after that, we were pricing around 100bps of cuts by year-end and a low point of 2.65% in 2025.
- At the lows we were even pricing in rates for end 2024/early 2025 that were around the same levels as those priced in 12 months ago, shortly after the Fed had started hiking rates. Indeed, at the end of March 2022 expectations were still for a terminal rate just beneath 3%, and not until late-2023. Yet even now with all the turmoil, the terminal rate is priced at 4.91%, and rates are seen remaining above 3% throughout 2024. It just shows how far we’ve come since then, with few expecting we're heading back to the zero-rates world we've had over much of the last decade and a half.
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Reminder the FOMC statement is due at 1800 GMT, which is 2pm US Eastern time. Powell's pres conference follows a half hour later.
