Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, his main point on the EUR:

  • “Imagine a situation where the US puts up a huge tariff wall against China,”
  • “All these Chinese goods would have to get diverted into other markets including Europe, so therefore we would see a big deflationary shock in Europe.”
  • Says such tariffs would be implemented in a more sweeping and rapid fashion if Donald Trump wins the US presidency, leading to parity between the euro and dollar.

More:

  • more tariffs on China and elsewhere would have inflationary consequences for the US
  • disinflationary consequences for the rest of the world
  • This would exacerbate the asymmetry between the Federal Reserve and the ECB
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