ECBs Centeno is on the wires saying:

  • A recession in the euro zone is not in the ECB scenario
  • The situation is delicate, it has to be followed very closely.

Needless to say Russia/Ukraine situation puts ECB on the precipice of a recession.

Earlier today

  • The G7 called on oil and gas producing nations to increase supplies of oil to international markets
  • German Chancellor Scholz said that there needs to be a constant flow of weapons to Ukraine and that Germany was to start construction of two LNG terminals later this year
  • Zelensky's Chief of Staff said there was progress in the cease-fire negotiations with Russia and express careful optimism
  • A Ukrainian presidential advisor said the situation on the frontline is practically frozen. Says in many areas Russian forces do not have the resources for an offensive
  • France's macron said that no decision has been made on sanctioning Russian oil, gas, and coal

Can there be a solution sooner rather than later? If so, a recession may be avoided. If he continues to go horribly upside down, and if the EU does impose sanctions at last, a recession could definitely be in order.

The EURUSD remains between support below it between the swing area support at 1.0960 to 1.09649 and a cluster of technical tool resistance between 1.1010 and 1.1015.