- As confidence builds, ECB can look at every meeting in making a decision
- There is confidence that inflation will hit 2% target next year
- Our baseline projections have proved to be quite solid
- We must be prudent on rates
- Still hesitant on growth assessment
- Monetary policy must aid with economic recovery
As much as they'd like to think so, July is definitely not a live meeting. September is still a possibility but not a given as well at this stage. Amid all the remarks, it is best to be reminded of the market pricing on ECB rates for the remainder of the year. The odds of a September move are ~81% priced in while traders are seeing ~43 bps of rate cuts by year-end.
