- It would take a significant shift in the outlook for the ECB to cut in October
- Very little new information in the pipeline before October meeting
- There is no rush to cut rates
- The safest approach is to wait for the outlook to become clearer
All this is very much a given now and they have guided markets relatively well in that regard. But at least economic developments are also playing out accordingly, so that helps with expectations. Traders are pricing in just ~39 bps of rate cuts for the last two meetings this year and not looking for a change in October as well; ~75% odds of no change to rates.
