ECBs Knot is speaking and says:

  • not convinced that going back to neutral enough
  • market pricing of rate hike in September not unwise
  • leaning toward 75 basis point would open for discussion
  • balance sheet reduction could come from less than full APP reinvestment
  • any balance sheet to wind down to be very gradual

The EURUSD is higher on the day helped by the leaning more toward a 75 basis point hike at the September meeting. Recall the ECB launched with a 50 basis point hike which was greater than the 25 basis point hike expected.

Technically, the EURUSD moved above its 200 hour moving average and was also able to get above the Thursday high at 1.00328 on its way to a high price of the day for at 1.00542. The price has since dipped back down to 1.0017.

EURUSD
EURUSD moved above the 200 hour MA