European Central Bank policy rate-setter Knot spoke on Saturday, watering down expectation of a December ECB rate cut just a little:

  • "It is important that we keep all options open. Retaining full optionality would act as a hedge against the materialization of risks in either direction to the growth and inflation outlook,"
  • "We believe that our meeting-by-meeting and data dependent approach has served us well,"

Knot said that expectation for a December rate cut in the market had increased "quite dramatically" following the recent data (weak purchasing managers' index and consumption data), but tried to water these down a little:

  • "We will have to see whether that was a little bit over-enthusiastic or not. We will only know once we do our own calculations again in December"

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Not sure too many folks will be fooled by this, the December rate cut seems almost locked in.

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While we're here, yen update following the election in Japan over the weekend:

USD-JPY hourly chart, gappy after the election 28 October 2024 2