ECB's Nagel: The probability of a rate cut before the summer break is increasing

• Does not see any automatism in rate cuts
• A June rate cut has a higher probability than one in April

The ECB will break for the summer right after its July meeting. So, if even the more hawkish members are compliant with a June move, it is pretty much a done deal now. That is barring any major shocks or surprise developments in the next two months.