- The pace of the moves depends on the data
- We are data dependent but not data point dependent
- Growth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sector
- If disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cuts
- We could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025
- The last thing we need now is yet another trade war
- Tariffs impact will be medium-to-long term
- Protectionism by definition is inflationary
The remarks are as you would expect from the ECB at this current stage. But they are already starting to recognise the potential impact of Trump tariffs and that's a warning signal to the outlook for next year I guess.
