- A small deviation from the projections would not change this view dramatically
- There is probably a premium in waiting for a meeting with new forecasts i.e. September
- But I would not make that a condition
- Decision to cut rates one more time is a relatively easy one
- But subsequent moves should only come once inflation is closer towards the 2% target
In his words, it looks to be a case of one more and done for the ECB for this year. The question now is whether economic developments in the next two months will support the case to move in September.
