Previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are here:
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 - preview
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November - preview
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Shadow Board recommend a 50bp cash rate cut this week
- ANZ forceast a 50bp interest cut from the RBNZ next week
- Reuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27
- Goldman Sachs expects a 50bp Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut this month
2pm New Zealand time on the 27th is:
- 0100 GMT on the 27th
- 2000 US Eastern time on the 26th
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Also on the calendar are Australian inflation data for October 2024.
In Australia, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. Traditionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has published CPI data quarterly, providing comprehensive insights into inflation trends.
To offer more timely information, the ABS introduced a Monthly CPI Indicator in October 2022. This monthly indicator includes updated prices for around two-thirds of the items in the CPI basket, offering a more frequent snapshot of inflation. However, it is less detailed than the quarterly CPI, as it covers fewer items and provides data only at the national level. The monthly indicator includes aggregate headline CPI, trimmed mean, each of the 11 CPI groups (e.g., clothing & footwear, health), and some selected expenditure classes (e.g., automotive fuel, new dwelling costs, rents, domestic and international travel, and some food categories).
While the monthly CPI indicator follows similar trends to the quarterly CPI, they are not identical. This is because, when prices are collected less frequently than monthly, the monthly CPI indicator assigns price changes to the month they are collected, whereas in the quarterly CPI series, price changes are allocated across the entire quarter. Therefore, the average of the index in the three months for the monthly CPI indicator will not equal the index of the quarterly CPI.
In summary, the monthly CPI indicator provides more frequent updates on inflation trends, while the quarterly CPI offers a more comprehensive and detailed analysis.
As for the prior data, last month we had the quarterly (Q3) and monthly (September) data. In the September 2024 quarter, Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2%, marking the lowest quarterly increase since June 2020. Annually, the CPI increased by 2.8%, down from 3.8% in the June quarter, bringing inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2–3% for the first time since late 2021.
For September 2024, the Monthly CPI Indicator showed a 2.1% increase over the previous 12 months.
Despite the overall decline in inflation, underlying measures, such as the trimmed mean, remained elevated at 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors.
These figures suggest that while headline inflation has moderated, core inflation remains above the RBA's target, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions towards holding rather than cutting rates.
