Société Générale:
As usual, the January meeting is unlikely to deliver any policy changes or major policy messages, involving instead a reflection on the year ahead.
In light of our slightly weaker inflation forecasts, we have moved our first rate cut to September, but there is high uncertainty as regards the data, implying that no cuts this year are also possible.
Deutsche Bank
- We expect the ECB to stay cautious on the inflation front and continue pushing back against a rate cut in Q1.
- We continue seeing the first rate cut in April (50 bps back to back in April-June and 150 bps in total in 2024) amid weak growth and inflation ahead.
The ECB announcement is due at 0815 US Eastern time with Lagarde's press conference at 0845:
