Ahead of each European Central Bank meeting ING distribute their awesome 'cheat sheet'.

Preamble:

  • ECB widely expected to cut by 25bp
  • after the recent inflation slowdown
  • We explore how a market positioned for a predictable outcome could react to a surprise hold or more dovish guidance. We retain a bias for higher front-end EUR rates, and further pressure on EUR/USD would probably need to come with some defensive pre-election positioning.
European Central Bank cheat sheet October 2024 2