The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting for May 2023 is today, Thursday, 4 May 2023.
- decision statement is due at 1215 GMT, which is 0815 US Eastern time
- European Central Bank President Lagarde's press conference follows at 1245 GMT, 0845 US Eastern time
An update from ABN-Amro on their forecast for what to expect:
Two important economic reports published today, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey and the April inflation report, make us comfortable with our view that the ECB will slow down the pace of rate hikes to 25bp on 4 May.
The ECB Bank Lending Survey (BLS) for 2023Q1 showed that eurozone banks further tightened credit standards on all types of loans.
- Meanwhile, net demand for loans by companies (balance higher minus lower) plummeted to -38, down from -12 in Q4, recording its sharpest decline since 2009Q1. Banks also reported a sharp further tightening in credit standards on loans to households for house purchases (net tightening 19 after 21 in 2022Q4), while demand for these loans also dropped further
Eurozone inflation increased to 7.0% in April, up from 6.9% in March, whereas the core rate (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) declined to 5.6%, down from 5.7% in March.
- we expect headline inflation to drop faster than the core rate this year, with the headline falling below the core rate as from the middle of the year onwards. By the end of the year, the headline inflation rate should be around 2%, whereas core inflation is expected to be around 3%.
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