- Would like to see a period of sustained inflation
- Would like to see inflation running at target for some time
- There is more tightening to come to get rates into restrictive territory
- The economy is in a fundamentally sound place
- Inflation is being driven by commodity prices, supply chain issues, demand
- I want to see real rates across the curve to be sustained in positive territory
- Need to sustain them there and follow through with expectations on rate hikes
- Demand is definitely softening. Businesses that benefit from Covid are seeing levels come back to normal
- Demand for hire and services is still strong
- Consumers really dislike inflation
- Inflation is exhausting, unfair, creates uncertainty
- Try to get inflation down on sustained basis and then can talk about what you do with rates
- If you can get inflation to target for a number of months, that's what would like to see (the target is 2%)
- Not every recession is like the great recession; there have been a lot of modest recessions
- We've got a lot of time before September meeting (Not committing to 75 basis point hike)
- Still have jobs, PCE and inflation reports before the next meeting
- Will be watching the data and make up mind closer to meeting
- Impact on mortgage rates and housing happened much quicker
- To the extent the economy softens that would weaken job openings and unemployment rates
- We'll see how much demand will need to soften to get inflation under control
- I don't have any problem trying to normalize the balance sheet as rates rise
US stocks are relatively little changed during markets comments:
- Dow Jones up 103 points or 0.31%
- S&P up 24 points or 0.57%
- NASDAQ index up 113 points or 0.89%
Looking at the debt markets, the 2 year yield has seen a move back to the upside since the Michigan report. The 10 and 30 year yields have moved more to the downside
- 2 year yield 3.25% +2.7 basis points
- 10 year yield 2.851%, -3.8 basis points
- 30 year 3.127%, -5.2 basis points