Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic (moderator), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins participate in "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System".
Mester says to expect above trend growth for the year
- Keeping rates restrictive is not that big a risk right now given the strength of the jobs market
- Policy is well positioned, need to monitor the incoming data
Raised estimate of long run neutral rate in last projection, current level of policy may not be "as restrictive" as it might otherwise have been
Need to see a few more months of inflation coming down, also watching inflation expectations
Collins says elevated uncertainty continues to be a feature of the economy, can't overreact to any data point
- This is a period when patience really matters, uncertainty a key factor at this point
- Progress towards interest rate adjustment lower will take longer
- Businesses are cautiously optimistic as it becomes easier to hire and wage pressures fall
- A number of factors are keeping the labor market strong, but it is rebalancing under influence of tight monetary policy
- A lot of reasons to think Fed policy is "moderately" restrictive with some impacts still in the pipeline
- Neutral rate may be higher, at least in the medium term
None of this is coming across as dovish.
