- Six-month core PCE rose at at annual 2.5% rate
- Inflation measured over relatively short periods may exaggerate idiosyncratic, temporary factors
- Labor market has remained relatively tight, demand has eased, supply has trended higher
- Wage gains slowed in 2023, but remain above pace consistent with 2% inflation
- Risks to achieving Fed's goals moving into better balance
- Not appropriate to reduce target range until we have greater confidence inflation moving to 2%
- Ongoing softening of labor demand and improvements in labor supply should contribute to a further slowing in core services price inflation
This report is more of a review than a tool to signal what's coming on policy.
