Federal Reserve autumn
  • New range of Fed funds is 3.75-4.00% vs prior range of 3.00%-3.25%
  • Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production
  • Repeats that the Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks
  • Repeats that " The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate"
  • Highlights comulative tightening and lags in policy
  • Prior statement

The statement includes this dovish bit and it's weighing on the dollar across the board. EUR/USD is up 70 pips since the release to 0.9940 and it's similar across the board for USD.

"In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."

That's a reference to slowing down the pace of hikes, though it's deliberately vague on the timeline for doing that.

The market was 98% priced in for a 75 basis point hike at the end of this two-day Federal Reserve meeting. Looking ahead, the terminal top was priced at 5.03% in May, which is higher than the 4.6% implied in the Fed's dot plot. Since the statement was released, that's down to 4.96%. Market participants will look for clues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the path of rate hikes going forward and how he sees progress towards bringing inflation under control. His press conference will begin at 3:30 pm ET.