Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was on an episode of Odd Lots that was published earlier today. I've been listening to it this morning and still working my way through it.
Some headlines have hit:
- Will take a 'test and learn' approach to rate cuts
- Current 'low-hiring, low-firing' approach companies now take to employment is unlikely to persist
- Risk is that firms will resort to layoffs if economy weakens
- Disinflation has spread beyond goods to the rest of the economy, boosting confidence it will continue
- I'm hearing that consumers are still spending but they're choosing
- I've talked to hotel chains where every room is booked but the second they raise prices, no one will buy
- Prices are up, people are aware of it and people are adjusting
- People are trading down
- It's rare that people I talk with are planning layoffs, and that kind of thing takes 3 months to plan
- I see a loosening labor market being driven by a lot more supply
- The data has come in a 'very consistent manner' in the past 3-4 months. Inflation is coming down. Labor market is loosening.
- I didn't take that much out of the non-farm payrolls revisions
- What's different in the labor market is the increase in supply -- people entering workforce and immigration
- I think there is a lot of demand out there for housing once rates come down
"The phrase I have been using is that 'people aren't hiring, but they're not firing' and that's just not likely a sustainable outcome. Either demand will continue and people will start hiring again or there will be layoffs," he said.
