- Latest inflation data did not increase my confidence that disinflation is spreading in the economy
- Latest inflation data looks like it did at the end of 2023 with goods prices falling, shelter moving sideways and services increasing
- Fed is 'not yet where we want to be' on inflation though 'headed in the right direction' over the longer time frame
So the message that's shaping up is that the Fed will stay patient on inflation and that cuts will eventually come, though later than previously believed. The market is already at that point with just 43 bps priced in this year.
