On the point about the consumer, yesterday's retail sales report was very strong but there was a huge seasonal adjustment that has the usual bears questioning the underlying strength.
Other comments from Barkin:
- Expectation of a recession as needed to slow inflation has not played out
- Firms are reluctant to let people go, and some sectors are still short on labor supply
- Clearly on the 'back end' of inflation
- Firms are still trying to test their pricing power through that is not a permanent state
- I'm watching the unemployment rate carefully but as open to idea that the policy is not as restrictive as thought
