Thomas Barkin Richmond Fed
- Recent data on PPI and CPI have been 'less good', showing dependence of disinflation on goods
- January data 'made things harder' but should not put too much weight on the month's information given known seasonality issues
- Ease of hiring is not yet back to normal but conditions are improving
- Productivity metrics are 'poor' and need to be viewed over longer time periods
- It's too soon to say there's been a sea change in productivity but firms are investing
- Weaker growth overseas should not have much impact on the US recovery
- The US still has a ways to go to get a soft landing
- The US is on the back end of its inflation problem, the question is how much longer it will take
The market has also taken a cautious view on the January CPI surprise but that will raise the stakes for February numbers.
