- Businesses now see pricing as a lever
- There's going to be a lot more inertia and persistence in inflation than we want
- It will take awhile for us to get inflation back to target
- May or may not take rates higher if inflation persists, will react to data
- If inflation settles, we might not go as far on the rate peak, it all depends on the data
- There is a very good case for leaving rates higher for longer for a period of time
- Lesson of the 1970s is don't give up too early
- My view on rates is two-sided depending on what inflation does
- Biggest surprise has been the jobs market
- Last month's jobs gains were much stronger than anticipated
- For me the risk of doing too much is outweighed by the risk of doing too little
Barkin is a measured speaker and this is starting to sound like a more-hawkish pivot.