- It's hard to know how much signal to take from inflation last year, or this quarter, or last couple of weeks
- I didn't quite get more confidence in Q1 this year about inflation, we'll see where we go
- On the goods side, I hear pricing power is waning
- This month's inflation reading was very encouraging
- Labor market is also heading in the right direction
- The hiring rate has dropped a lot
- I'm watching closely if we're going to see an acceleration
- The dynamic underpinning spending is a strong jobs market and a stock market at record levels
- Consumer spending is still solid
- It's not hard to see scenarios where the labor market weakens
- There could be lots of reasons for why the yield curve is inverted
- A lot of economic signals have not worked well this cycle
US 5-year breakevens are at 2.16%, the bond market has already decided that inflation is over.
