- Not going into December meeting with a sense that the outcome is preordained, coming data will be important; keeping options open
- Still an open question how fast and by how much rates need to be cut to keep inflation declining while avoiding undue damage to the job market
- Risks to inflation, employment mandates are roughly in balance, justifies move towards neutral monetary policy
- If going to err, will err on the side of being more restrictive
- Has not yet decided on pace, extent of cuts for 2025
- Will have to wait and see how tariffs or other policies of new administration shape the economy; as conditions change monetary policy will adapt
- Companies say there is not a lot of pressure to hire, but also not an expectation that labor market is going to weaken
- Still think policy rate is restrictive
- Do not want people to conclude view that there must be a cut at every meeting
- Economy on solid footing, nearing price stability with labor market at or around maximum employment
- Data and contacts suggest economic growth is cooling and pricing power continues to diminish
- Do not believe progress on inflation has stalled, though it has been bumpy
- Uncertainties around health of job market, but analysis suggests it is cooling in an orderly fashion
- Risks to inflation, employment mandates are roughly in balance, justifies move towards neutral monetary policy
- Atlanta Fed's base case is that inflation remains on track to reach 2%
The implied odds of a cut are 64% but those will swing this week based on data and Fed commentary. The blackout starts on Friday at midnight so look for a strong hint before then, though it might not come until Friday.
