- Inflation is a big problem
- At this point, I'd toss a coin between 50 bps and 75 bps
- But if data remains strong and inflation doesn't soften, it may make a case for another 75 bps
- Some weakening in the economy is to be expected
- Fed needs to really make sure inflation is well on its way to 2% before taking steps to increase accommodative policy stance
- Full interview (may be gated)
The door for a 75 bps rate hike remains open and we'll have to get through a few hurdles to settle the debate. The first will be Fed chair Powell's speech tomorrow but in what is largely a data-driven market at the moment, the US jobs report on 2 September and US CPI data on 13 September will be the next two key releases to watch out for.