- Jobs picture is 'rock solid'
- Wages are not driving inflation dynamic but we need to be on top of it if something changes
- I think unemployment is going to rise a little bit
- Sees unemployment rising to 4% this year (from 3.5% today)
- We still need to stay the course, inflation is too high
- Recession is not my baseline
- Most important thing is to hold at high rates
- Would be comfortable with 25 or 50 bps at next meeting. Would lean to 25 bps if jobs market loosens.
It's interesting that the Fed refrain is the importance of holding at high rates rather than the potential for hiking higher. He said there won't be urgency to cut from the peak and he sees rates holding at high levels 'well into 2024'.