- We can also make announcements on reducing the balance sheet as soon as May
- Since March meeting, we have seen new evidence that the economic expansion is self-sustaining
- Hiking to 2.50% this year is not abrupt or surprising
- Expect US economic growth to slow below trend but not tip into recession
- Premature to decide how restrictive policy may need to get, need to evaluate inflation and supply chains
- US labor market is 'frothy'
The market is pricing in a 99.6% chance of a 50 bps hike; this confirms it. The bigger question will be about what the FOMC tees up for the subsequent meeting. A big part of that will depend on the CPI report that's due a week after the FOMC decision.