- I don't see the need for hikes larger than 50 bps
- Comfortable with path that includes two 50 bps hikes and gets rates to 2.25-2.50% by year end
- Won't be able to make a judgement on whether inflation pressures are easing until end of this year
There's more here than meets the eye. He's laying out a path where the Fed is essentially on auto-pilot until year end when they will decide whether they need to get above neutral next year. If they take it that far, that will leave the market guessing on whether they'll go above neutral in 2023.