- There have been a series of 'close call' type meetings
- There will probably be more close call meetings
- Still a lot of data coming in on what's next, nothing is ever not on the table
- We don't want to get ahead or behind
- Job market has cooled to a level of full employment
- Fed projections show vast majority believes that over the next 12-18 months, rates come down a fair amount
- The Fed has to take a longer view
- If data continues to illustrate that employment is not deteriorating, that will relieve some of my concerns
The market is feeling more-settled about the idea of another 25 bps in November with the odds up to 93% from 85% yesterday. I don't see anything here that changes that. Barkin and Williams are also scheduled to speak in the next hour.
