- If credit conditions are tightening, that does the Fed 's work
- With this retail sales number, we might be seeing some of the lag of mon pol
- I think inflation is coming down but there's clear stickiness in some of the numbers
- I want to see all the data before deciding on May
- I'm going to spend the next few weeks figuring out the amount of credit tightening going on
- A mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility
He was teed up for a question on May in the first question, which sounded a bit like a plant after he said the Fed still needed to hike a 'bit' in his first speech this week. Here, he's walking that back a bit and putting it more on data dependence. That said, the market is pricing in an 80% chance of a hike on May 3, so this little bit of pussyfooting isn't going to change anything.