Austan Goolsbee
  • If we stay restrictive for too long, we have to think about the employment mandate
  • If unemployment is going to go up higher than 4.1%, that's the kind of thing the Fed has to respond to
  • The through-line of the data doesn't change based on one month's number
  • We have been seeing the improvement we've wanted on inflation
  • We will determine the size of rate cut or if there is any action will be the economic conditions

He did at least touch on the size of a rate cut. The market is pricing in a 72% chance of 50 bps in September.

More:

  • The economy still has crosscurrents
  • Small business defaults, delinquencies are rising, in 'warning sign' stage
  • We set policy rate at current level a year ago and conditions have changed