- I think we're getting close to questions about how long we will hold, rather than how high
- It feels like we're going to hold longer than markets were expecting
- The risk of inflation staying higher is the bigger risk
- The employment side of the economy is going very well
- External shocks have derailed the Fed from achieving a soft landing in the past, so that's keeping me up at night
- Inverted yield curve is a mentality of looking at the past and applying it to future but covid has made a lot of predictions look 'goofy'
There isn't much here for markets and certainly not anything to halt the rise in Treasury yields. US 10s are hovering right around 4.50%.
