- We need to get to 2.50% and quickly
- 75 bps helps us to get to neutral stance
- We should be above 3% by the end of the year
- No ready to decide on 50/75 for July 27 meeting
- If demand softens, 50 bps for July may be good
- We're starting to see signs of softening demand
- Could have a couple of negative GDP quarters
- Balance sheet shrinkage is essentially on autopilot
- If we need to decelerate or accelerate economy, we will do that via Fed funds rate
The Fed is at 1.50-1.75% so getting to 2.50% might only be one meeting away. The market continues to price in a terminal top near 3.75%.
Inflation is a big concern but today's 7% drop in oil prices is certainly helpful for the Fed.