- Eye-popping inflation numbers now likely in the rearview mirror
- Doesn't see recession but GDP should slow to 1% this year
- Time of supersized hikes has passed
- Remains concerned about commercial real estate
- Unemployment likely to tick up to 4.5% this year from 3.5% currently
- Unemployment then likely to fall back to 4.0% in 2024
- Labor market in excellent shape
Key line:
“We will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed…hikes of 25 bps will be appropriate going forward."
