Fed's Harker: We need to get to a restrictive stance, which we will do by year-end

• We have to sit for awhile at restrictive rates
• I'd like to see us get above 3.4% and then maybe sit for awhile but it depends on the data
• We've got to get inflation under control.
• I'm focused on the distribution of the number of goods that are above 2%
• I want to see the next inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term reading and then decide on what to do in Sept
• A 50 bps is still a substantial move
• I don't see the risk of a sustained, deep recession to be very high but it could change the Fed's stance
• I'm not in the camp of taking rates way up and then right back down
• Medium-to-long term neutral rate is around 2.5%.

It was notable that he emphasized that 50 bps is still a substantial move. The line about 'sitting for awhile' after hiking above 3% also sounded a bit rehersed. That's likely to be the message from the Fed at Jackson hHole but the market's absorbed a lot of it already. Fed fund futures hit 3.7% in Feb and only slip to 3.4% at 2023 year end.