- It would not be appropriate to signal hate hikes would be gradual or deliberate; too much is out of our control
- We need more information before we can decided what we'll do a few months from now
- If inflation comes down faster than expected, that would be good news and the Fed would need to do less
- A pause in spring on rate hikes is conceivable
- Other factors should start to bring inflation down even before the Fed acts
- Yield curve suggests we are not that far away from neutral, not as far as we thought
This is an interesting take. It's a bit of a pushback on the idea of agressive hiking but also reflects his bias on the 'transitory' front. Ultimately though he comes down on the side of watching data, which is a bit of a cop-out but that's the state of play right now.
