- Balance of risks have shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher inflation
- Overall the US economy is resilient
- Not seeing signs of resurgent inflation
- Reduction in new rents gives us confidence that housing inflation will come down
- We could be surprised by stresses on particular banks from office sector real estate
- We're watching office very carefully but not seeing evidence of systemic risk
- I'm deeply enthusiastic about generative AI
- Underbuilding is a big source of housing inflation
- Supply chain disruptions, labor shortages are another source of housing inflation, as is the risk of work from home
- Balance sheet shrinking has 'a ways to go'
- There is huge uncertainty about neutral rate, I see it close to 3%
More to come as he participates in a moderated discussion.
