Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.
Headlines via Reuters:
- My policy rate expectation is consistent with March FOMC meeting policymaker projections
- If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as i am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate
- Expect disinflationary trend to continue
- Policy is currently restrictive, and my baseline expectation is that disinflation will continue without a broad economic slowdown
- Such an outcome is not assured
- Inflation progress has sometimes been bumpy
- Annual core PCE at 2.8% represents 'considerable progress' but is still 'meaningfully above' Fed's 2% target
- Data on new tenant rent agreements suggest that housing inflation broadly will continue to cool
- Continued disinflation will indeed require further progress in housing and non-housing services
- Labor market has moved into better balance
- Suspect strong population growth 'helps resolve the puzzle' of labor market growth and strong consumption even as inflation eases
- Important that wage growth be consistent with 2% inflation over time; US is moving back toward that kind of wage growth
- Anchored inflation expectations are evident in consumer and business surveys
- Expect consumption growth to slow some this year
- Consumer spending was soft in January and February, suggesting we are on track for lower consumption growth in q1 vs second half of 2023
- Expect GDP growth this year to be solid but slower than 2023 pace of 3.1%
- My baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment
- Appears supply networks are adapting to port of Baltimore disruption
Bolding above is mine. 'Meaningfully above' doesn't sound to me like we get a rate cut in two months. But, I've been like a broken record on this (kids, ask an oldie what being a broken record means).
Fed's Kugler
