Fed's Logan
- Fed will 'most likely' need more cuts but should 'proceed cautiously'
- If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerate
- Difficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happen
- Fed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation down
- Fed not quite back to price stability yet
- US economic activity is resilient
- Labor market cooling gradually but not weakening materially
- Sees upside risk to inflation, downside risk to employment, says financial conditions may pose biggest challenges for monetary policy
- If bond yields continue to rise, the Fed may need less-restrictive policy
Logan last spoke in late October and wasn't quite this hawkish. I think the Fed cuts in December but takes a pause after that and waits to see how things play out.
