Powell hawk and dove
  • There is an obvious need to move expeditiously to more neutral level and more restrictive levels if needed to restore price stability
  • Action on balance sheet could come as soon as May meeting but not decision has been made
  • Ukraine war may have significant effects on the world economy but the magnitude and persistence is highly uncertain
  • Fed's policy actions will help bring down inflation near 2% over the next three years
  • History provides grounds for optimism that Fed can achieve a soft landing
  • Fed projections can become outdated quickly at times like these with events developing rapidly
  • We are headed once again into more covid-related supply disruptions from China

The US dollar is higher on these comments. The implied odds of a 50 basis point hike are currently at 60% for the May 4 meeting compared to 52% beforehand.