Fed's Waller: The data is basically screaming at us to go for 50 bps

• The data is basically screaming at us to go for 50 bps but geopolitical called for caution
• The debate about 25-50 bps will continue at upcoming meetings
• US doesn't have much direct exposure to Russia but trading partners do
• Russia could knock off 0.5 percentage points from US growth but it will still be very strong
• I continue to be in favor of front-loading rate hikes
• Pulling that forward would imply 50 bps "at one or more" upcoming meetings
• We should be much higher than we are right now on rates
• Asked about year-end rates, says Fed should be closer to neutral
• His projection is to be above 2-2.25% by the end of the year
• Says he continues to advocate for reducing balance sheet before July meeting
• "Inflation is raging"
• Says Fed in the position to draw down Drawdown In financial trading, the drawdown represents the amount of money a trader can lose or has lost, following a series of losing trades. This is measured from the high of the trader’s capital to its low, over a given period of time. This is usually expressed as a percentage of a trader’s account. The current drawdown is simply the amount of money a trader’s balance has been reduced by in a given time, without necessarily closing out at that point.For example, if a trader placed an initial deposit o In financial trading, the drawdown represents the amount of money a trader can lose or has lost, following a series of losing trades. This is measured from the high of the trader’s capital to its low, over a given period of time. This is usually expressed as a percentage of a trader’s account. The current drawdown is simply the amount of money a trader’s balance has been reduced by in a given time, without necessarily closing out at that point.For example, if a trader placed an initial deposit o Read this Term a large amount of liquidity Liquidity Liquidity refers to the extent of a financial instrument’s ability to be bought or sold without causing price fluctuations. Thus, if an asset is extremely liquid, it means one can trade that asset in the knowledge that one’s specific dealing won’t create significant movements in the market.This is because there exists such a large number of traders going both long and short, generating huge volume for that particular asset. Liquidity in the FX MarketTake the example of the foreign exchange marke Liquidity refers to the extent of a financial instrument’s ability to be bought or sold without causing price fluctuations. Thus, if an asset is extremely liquid, it means one can trade that asset in the knowledge that one’s specific dealing won’t create significant movements in the market.This is because there exists such a large number of traders going both long and short, generating huge volume for that particular asset. Liquidity in the FX MarketTake the example of the foreign exchange marke Read this Term without having a negative effect, though could be a bit more cautious due to Ukraine
• There hasn't been a lot of market turmoil since we made the pivot in November
• I still think supply chain issues will begin to resolve by year end or early next year
• Says he would be more concerned if he saw inflation expectations two years out become de-anchored
• 2-year out inflation expectations, are not that high

Waller pushed up USD/JPY to a fresh 6-year high at 119.25 on Waller's comments, initially jumping 15 pips. The weekly close for USD/JPY today is key: