Fitch with projections for the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and European Central Bank's Gaoverning Council:
- We expect both the US Federal Reserve and ECB to cut rates three times, by a total of 75bp, by year-end.
- But both central banks want to see more evidence that recent disinflation progress is durable before starting out on the policy-easing process.
- We have pushed back the date of the first Fed cut to July from our previous expectation of June.
- We have also pushed back the date of the first ECB cut to June from April.
More from the firm's Global Economic Outlook (GEO) for March 2024.
Raised its 2024 global GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 2.4%, reflecting
- "a sharp upward revision to the US growth forecast to 2.1%, from 1.2% in the December 2023 GEO"
- revision to the US outweighs a marginal cut to our China 2024 growth forecast - to 4.5% from 4.6%
- revision to our eurozone forecast, to 0.6% from 0.7%
