Here is the dot plot from September 2024 meeting:
Here is the NEW dot plot from the December 2024 meeting:
Below is the table of economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation from the December 2024 meeting.
What changes for 2025:
Summary of the economic projections for EOY 2025:
- GDP higher 0.1% : 2.1% vs 2.0% in September
- Unemployment rate down -0.1% : 4.3% vs 4.4% in September
- PCE inflation higher by 0.4%: . 2.5% vs 2.1% in September
- Core PCE inflation higher by 0.3% : 2.5% vs 2.2% in September
Reaction:
- 34 basis points of cuts now in the Fed Funds projections vs 48 basis point cuts before the decision
In the US stock market (6 minutes)
- Dow went from 43551 to 43405 currently
- S&P went from 6058 to 6027 currently
- Nasdaq went from 20146 to 20004
In the US debt market:
- 2-year 4.255% to 4.31% currently
- 10 year 4.401% to 4.447% currently
- 30 year 4.612% to 4.635% currently
