FOMC dot plot and central tendencies from Dec 2022 meeting. EOY 2023 4.8%

• The dot plot from December 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2023 at 5.1% vs 4.6% at the September 2022 projection
• For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is 4.1% versus 3.9% in September
• For 2025, the median fed funds target rate is 3.1% versus 2.9%

The dot plot from December 2022:

The dot plot from September 2022:

The table of central tendencies from December 2022 shows:

Highlights from the central tendencies

• PCE inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term higher to 2.9% – 3.5%. Up from 2.6% – 3.5% in September
• core PC higher: 3.2% – 3.7% above the 3.0% – 3.4% in September
• unemployment rate in 2023 is expected be higher 4.4% – 4.7% up from 4.1% – 4.5%
• GDP is expected to be lower at 0.4% – 1.0%

Overall more bearish as the Fed expects the terminal rate to be higher than market expectations prior to the report. Also they expect lower growth, and higher inflation.