• The dot plot for September 2022 shows the median rate at the end of 2022 at 4.4%, up from 3.4% in June 2022.
  • For 2023, the median Fed fund target rate is 4.6% vs. 3.8% in June 2022.
  • For 2024, the median Fed funds target rate is now 3.9% vs 3.4% in June 2022
  • The initial 2025 median rate is expected at 2.9%.

The dot plot for September 2022:

Dot plot
Dot plot for September 2022

The dot plot from June 2022:

Dot plot
Dot plot from June 2022

The table of central tendencies from September 2022 now shows:

FOMC
Central Tendencies for September 2022

A summary of the central tendencies now forecasts:

on inflation, the Fed does not see inflation returning to target 2% until 2025. The 2024 inflation rate is nearer the 2% target

  • PCE inflation for 2022 rises to 5.3% – 5.7% from 5.0% – 5.3%
  • PCE inflation for 2023 raise to 2.6% – 3.5% from 2.4% – 3.0% in June
  • PCE inflation for 2024 modestly higher to 2.1% – 2.6% from 2.0% – 2.5% June.
  • PCE inflation for 2025 basically at the Fed target rate of 2.0% – 2.2%

GDP:

  • growth in 2022 just above 0.0% at 0.2% average vs. 1.5% – 1.9%
  • 2023 growth 0.5% – 1.5%, down from 1.3% – 2.0% in June. Slower growth.
  • 2024 growth 1.4% – 2.0%, slightly lower than 1.5% -2.0% in June. Near unchanged

Unemployment

  • 2022 raise to 3.8% – 3.9% from 3.6% – 3.8%
  • 2023 unemployment seen higher at 4.1% – 4.5% vs. 3.8% – 4.1% in June
  • 2024 sees steady unemployment 4% – 4.6%. The estimate is wider than the 3.9% – 4.1% seen in June

\inflation