FOMC dot plot and central tendencies from the June 2023 meeting. EOY 2023 rate 5.6%

• The FOMC dot plot for May 2023 show the median rate at the end of 2023 at 5.6% versus 5.1% in March 2023
• For 2024, the median fed funds target rate is 4.6% vs 4.3% in March
• For 2025, the median fed funds target rate is 3.4% vs 3.1% in March

Below is the dot plot for June 2023:

As a comparison, the dot plot from March 2023 showed:

The table central tendencies from June 2023 shows:

Highlights from the central tendencies:

• PCE inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term for 2023 moved to 3.2% from 3.3% in March
• Core PCE for 2023 moved to 3.9% from 3.6% March
• Unemployment target for 2023 4.1% vs 4.5% in March
• GDP GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific period of time, typically a year. It is used to measure the economic activity and growth of a country. Periods shorter than a year are often presented in an annualized or year-over-year format.There are three ways to calculate GDP:The expenditure approach: GDP is calculated by adding up all the spending on goods and services within a country. This includes consumer s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific period of time, typically a year. It is used to measure the economic activity and growth of a country. Periods shorter than a year are often presented in an annualized or year-over-year format.There are three ways to calculate GDP:The expenditure approach: GDP is calculated by adding up all the spending on goods and services within a country. This includes consumer s Read this Term 1.0% vs 0.4% in March

The Fed pivoted to a hawkish pause in rates as the projected terminal rate increased to 5.6% from 5.1% in March. That implies 2 more hikes in 2023. In 2024 they raise the end of your rate to 4.6%. In 2024 they see PCE inflation dipping to 2.5% from 3.2% in 2023. They still see the core inflation rate at 2.6% in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023.