Forecast for RBNZ peak rate has fallen to 5.12%, from 5.38% 3 weeks ago - Not just SVB

Yesterday WPAC in NZ cut its expectation for the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike to +25bp from +50bp

• Westpac forecast the RBNZ to hike its cash rate by 25bp at the April meeting

Via a Reuters report on its recent polling:

• Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be down 0.2% in the December quarter, well below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) forecast of 0.7% growth, according to a Reuters poll of 14 economists.

The GDP figure will be released at 10.45 a.m. on Thursday (2145 GMT Wednesday).

BNZ comment:

• said an economic contraction would be notable enough to change the starting point of rate deliberations by the central bank. "They can't ignore it"

Reuters adds:

• Markets are now pricing an OCR peak of 5.12%, down from 5.38% three weeks ago, when the central bank last met. Expectations have fallen in part in line with global markets, which were hit by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Severe weather events in the first two months of the year are also poised to be a key factor in New Zealand's economic growth this year. The service sector is likely to have suffered as people laid low during Cyclone Gabrielle, ASB analysts said in a note.

Next RBNZ meeting is April 5: