The inflation data is here:
NZ Q3 CPI 2.2% q/q (expected 1.6%)
NZD/USD response:
NZD/USD up a few ticks after the surging inflation report
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Analysts in New Zealand are now marking their Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike calls up.
ANZ:
- expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR 75bp in both November and February
- peak of 5% (previously at 4.75%)
- "domestic and core inflation pressures unexpectedly accelerated in Q3"
ASB:
- expect a +75 basis-point hike at the 23 November meeting
- forecast peak for the OCR raised to 5.25%, from 4.25%
- “A self-sustaining high inflation dynamic looks like it is becoming increasingly embedded,”
- “Restrictive OCR settings and a clear RBNZ focus on delivering eventual sub-3% inflation outcomes are needed.”
Kiwibank raised their forecast OCR peak to 4.5% from 4%:
- “Today’s report will be like a red rag to an inflation-fighting bull”
- “Stronger for longer inflation will force interest rates higher for longer than we had previously expected”
NZD/USD update: