Higher interest rates aren't yet hitting the consumer hard or bringing inflation back to target, according to today's April PCE report. Inflation rose 4.4% y/y in an acceleration from 4.2% previously while personal spending surged 0.8% in the month.
Bank of America has reaffirmed its base case expectation that the Federal Reserve will not implement a rate hike in June, though the bank maintains an inclination towards a hike in the future, noting that it's a "close call". According to BofA, three conditions need to be met for a Fed rate hike: 1) strong economic data, 2) an increase in the debt ceiling, and 3) subdued regional bank stress.
The bank also believes that inflation remains too persistent for the Fed to commit to a prolonged pause in rate increases. Even if the Fed decides to forego a rate increase in June, BofA suggests that it will keep the possibility of a July hike on the table.
Separately, Goldman Sachs economists continue to chase their tails. After calling for a pause after the March bank stress and then seeing a hike anyway, they're now teetering with their June call.
"While we continue to expect the Fed to pause deletion in June, this morning’s stronger-than-expected consumer spending and inflation data and the wide range of views by FOMC participants on the appropriate policy path make this a close call," Goldman Sachs economists wrote today.
The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a hike in June and a 100% chance of a hike in either June or July.
